iPad Can't Replace Desktop PC

Some tech bloggers that seem to be swayed by the iPad are claiming it will cannibalize even Desktop PCs. Considering the hype around Apple products, analysts have started releasing reports about iPad taking over sales of netbooks and other products. This is too early to say, as users are still trying to understand the iPad.
 
Devil's Advocate
iPads are low power, less-demanding-less-offering devices. iPads are not real computers. Then who needs real computers, anyway? Geeks: to do their coding; writers: for intensive writing where they need all the features of OpenOffice.org and short-cuts; architects: for their 3D Cad, Graphic designers, web developers, and students for their projects. Film-makers; big and small enterprise customers; IT admins; grandma and grandpa to send their emails, to Skype with their family. Yes, these people, and many more actually need real computers.
 
To counter the advocates of simplicity, I would play the devil's advocate: iPad is a heavily simplified device to do extremely basic computing. It’s so basic that a normal user might feel the same frustration I would feel if I have to use a calculator for writing a simple html tag like <a href =>. Simplicity is good but it also reminds me of the movie Idiocracy. In that movie thinks become so simplified that humans have “dumbed-down.” Is that what we want?
 
In addition to above mentioned simplicity risks, these products follow the closed system/closed mind policy which poses a great threat to our social behavior and culture by embedding in our minds the notion: sharing is evil. How scary will the world be when kids won't share their lunches, books and thoughts with others? They will live in their own isolated worlds. Closed systems will do more damage than it appears today; they change our approach towards life.
 
iPad is an anti-thesis of computers. It is a not-that-smart computer. It doesn't allow you to do many things that a computer is supposed to be doing. No doubt it has a nice interface with eye-candy icons, but it is still not a computer. It is a dirt-bike, if computers are Ferraris or SUVs.

iPad vs Desktop: Will it replace real desktop computing?
There are reports that iPads will kill netbooks and desktop computing. First, there is no substantial market for netbooks; that market is still finding its niche; it is still picking up.

Morgan Stanley Alphawise presented a report analyzing which devices the iPad will cannibalize. Many media blogs picked the second last tab Desktop. But what they did not mention was if we go by the graph, iPad will cannibalize most of Apple's own products leading to a big hole in Apple's pocket. It will eat up 24% of Apple's notebook market (does that mean Apple's MacBook Air will vaporize into thin Air?). 41% of the iPod Touch market will be gone. 14% of Apple's desktop market will be lost to the iPad.

Compare losing out a $1499 device Airbook to a $499 device; consider the sweat on a salesperson's forehead when you switch your order from a $2499 Apple desktop to a $499 iPad. Every iPad sold to an Apple's AirBook customer or Desktop customer would mean around a $1000 - $2000 loss to Apple, if we go by this report.
 
Mainstream desktop users know the real power of a desktop. Desktop gamers spend $500 only on their GPUs (sometimes they use more than one) -- Nvidia's GTX 480 is the new craze. They spend $1,200 on a CPU. They want a monster; their thirst can never be satisfied by a drop of water, when they are used to drinking from ocean.

Serious gamers will never move to the iPad. The Apple platform has not much to offer to Gamers. In gaming arena Apple's situation is similar to Gnu/Linux users.

Right now there is a created craze; it seems everybody is talking about the iPad. The real test will be some 6 later when there will be better, less controlled devices in the market; when there will be a Google gPad running powerful Linux on it.

History lessons
When the Apple Air was announced, the same hype was created around it. It is the same story at Apple every time a new product is launched. What is the market share of Air today? How much notebook market has it devoured? Or has it slipped into oblivion?
 
iPhone was the most revolutionary device, but look at its shares; they are slipping.  According to an Information Week article, "The iPhone accounted for 16.6% of global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter, compared to 18.1% in the third quarter, ABI Research said. The last time Apple slipped in market share quarter-over-quarter was in 2008, when iPhone shipments fell to 10.7% from 12.9% during the same time frame."

Apple is a company that the technology world needs. Apple shows how good Free (or Open Source) Software can be, if developed well (Apple's base is free software like BSD, Mach and KHTML).
 
It also shows how 'good' looking gadgets can be. Apple is a counter balance to many monopolistic forces in the market today. Apple has its own niche market and it will always remain there.
 
There will always be Apple fans, loyalists. There will always be takers of cool gadgets. But it will never take over the mass market. I don't think Apple wants that.
 
All they want, I think, is: A Few Loyal Customers.